How To Spot A Vulnerable Horse Racing Favourite
As the popularity of the betting exchanges grows, so more and more people are looking to profit from horse racing by laying horses to lose. But what is vulnerable?
Vulnerable means that the horse racing betting market is saturated with competitors, and the price in the market will grow more slowly than the price on Betfair, for example. As a result, rivals will constantly snap up the prices in the market, driving down the price on both sides of the market.
All Betfair horses are virtually worthless, but for the ‘best’ horse, at £10,000, you have to invest £10,000 to win £10,000 – these are 2.8 and 2.7 on Betfair, which are practically even money. So if you think a horse is worth £10,000, and it is being offered at £10,000, when you hear of a lay bet of £10,000, you can obviously think that the horse is not worth £10,000.
Many people believe that Lay Bets pay more than other bets. Firstly, if you lay a horse, you are challenging other users to match your lay stake – you are acting in the same way as you would in a bet. Secondly, laying a horse, in itself, is risky. It is called ‘ laying the favourite ‘ because you are betting that the horse will not win, whereas in bet betting, you can simply back the horse to win. Many horses run in races with only one runner, so we never find a favourite available to lay in these races.
Therefore, laying a horse, in itself, is a risky business. For this reason, many professional traders try and create systems or programs to identify when horses are viable to lay and when they are not. However, there are no systems which identify when a horse is not suitable for a lay bet.
Placing Lay Bets on Betfair
Lay bets are typically expressed as a fractional figure. By laying a horse, you are effectively handing that horse over to the betting exchange, so the amount you lay is the amount of money you are willing to lose. When you lay a horse, you give up your lay claim, so the amount you are entitled to get back is the whole of your stake plus the free stakes.
When you lay a horse, you give up your backing claim, so the amount of money you are entitled to get back is the whole of your free stake. However, any money you pay to the bookie in excess of the free stake money may be nibbling away at your profit, and cause you to have a less than optimum outcome (you may be less than optimum, but bet to 220.127.116.11).
MUSL is the same concept, except that the stake won’t be nibbling away at your profit. The whole point of muslim betting is that, whilst you give up some of the money you bet on the horse, you are genuinely independent of the outcome.
The odds market is a very tough one, because muslim handicapping methods are themselves a form of arbitrage.
When you spot an arb in an outcome, you back into the market, where the price is far less than the actual chance of the selection coming first or second. In this instance, muslim betting carries a really big risk – you could lose your bet!
An outcome with a very low level of certainty will involve very low odds, whereas for an outcome with a greater level of certainty, you would back that horse or team in preference to the one at a shorter price.
To work out what the optimal lay bet is for a particular selection, you need to work out the lowest price available at the betting exchange, and subtract the weight of money devoted to it on the exchanges, giving you the net price you want.
advertise horse races on all the major betting exchanges, such as Betfair and Betdaq – they advertise horse races and give you the chance to back or lay horses which are going to win or lose on the exchanges.
If you are serious about working out what the optimal lay bet is for a horse race, you are probably going to have to either take the method in the bookie’s favour, or work it out yourself. Either way, you are going to have to make some big bucks to make your horse race betting hobby profitable!
Recent studies have shown that profitable sports betting averages about 8 wins for each losing bet from a total of 14 bets made. Obviously, you can’t win all of the time, and even if you do win at times, the sheer small percentage of wins will soon dry up.
What you need to do is center all your betting around three to four races a day. Each time, only place one bet on each selection, but always bet on the same selection.